A recent research report conducted by the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (ABARES) has shown that China’s anti-dumping duties have seriously disrupted Australia’s wine trade, spurring the need for an alternative solution.
The report, “Australian wine in China: Impact of China’s anti-dumping duties,” investigated the short- to medium-term consequences of China’s punitive anti-dumping measures on Australian wine exports.
China’s anti-dumping duties – ranging from 116 per cent to 218 per cent – will cause China’s imports of bottled wine from Australia to cease entirely, ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said.
“We expect that only 60 per cent of wine destined for China will find a place in our other existing markets by 2025, unless we make the effort to find alternative markets or do things differently,” Greenville said.
“While Australia exports wine to over 100 countries, the Chinese market was the largest in both export and volume for bottled wine, accounting for 40 per cent of export value share and 24 per cent of export volume share.
Without growing existing markets or finding new ones, the export value of Australian wine in 2025 is expected to be $480 million lower, according to Greenville.
“The total cost of the anti-dumping measures could be at least $2.4 billion over a five-year period,” he said.
“For wine grape growers, the loss of production would be $67 million annually. This represents annual losses of $11 million in the Riverina, $11 million for the Victoria-North West region, $23 million for South Australia-South East region, and $21 million for growers everywhere else.”
The ABARES report says this can be avoided if Australia finds new markets, or new ways to generate value from wine sold into existing markets.
“The Australian wine industry is resilient, and industry bodies and businesses have already had success in diverting to other markets,” he said.
“Since the beginning of the year, Australian wine exporters have managed to redirect around 30 per cent of the wine destined for China. They’re well on the way.”
“Australian wine in China: Impact of China’s anti-dumping duties” is available to view on the ABARES website.