Australian almond exports are continuing to set records, with volumes shipped in the first nine months of the current season surpassing those for any full 12-month period, according to data compiled by the Almond Board of Australia.
The surge in export activity comes as global prices for almonds continue to strengthen, supported by a favourable exchange rate for Australian growers, particularly against the US dollar.
The latest figures show that Australian almond marketers and processors have shipped 143,921 tonnes of product between March and November 2024. This represents an increase in sales volume, with Australia on track to exceed its previous export records for the 2024 season.
The robust export performance is driven by strong demand from key markets, with China leading the way in volume growth.
Asia market driving growth
Almond shipments to China have surged by 123 per cent compared to the same period last year, cementing the country as a critical export destination for Australian almonds.
Industry sources attribute this rise in demand to the ongoing benefits of the Australia-China Free Trade Agreement, which has played a key role in enhancing Australian almonds’ competitiveness in the Chinese market.
The agreement has helped Australian almonds secure a large share of the market, outpacing Californian shipments to China and Vietnam.
According to shipping data for the current season, Australia has shipped 69,964 tonnes of almonds to China and Vietnam from March to November 2024. In comparison, Californian shipments to the same markets total 49,752 tonnes for the same period (March to December 2024). This marks a clear shift in market dynamics, with Australia now holding a commanding position in the region.
The rise in demand from China appears to be further amplified by geopolitical factors, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the potential trade tensions between the United States and China in 2025.
Australian Almond Board (ABA) CEO Tim Jackson noted that these concerns may have led to a heightened interest from Chinese buyers in securing almonds from Australia, diversifying their supply chains to mitigate potential risks associated with US-China relations.
Expansion in South-East Asia
Beyond China, Australian almond exports are also gaining traction in other parts of Asia. Efforts to expand almond consumption in South-East Asia have shown positive results, with exports to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore all recording growth. These markets are increasingly viewed as important for long-term diversification, with the region representing a growing segment of Australia’s export base.
Impact on domestic supply and prices
The strong export performance is expected to have an impact on the domestic supply of almonds for the upcoming season. With exports running at such high levels, Australian processors are likely to be left with very little carry-in inventory for the 2025 season.
The most recent crop estimate for 2024 sits at 153,500 tonnes, but given the nine-month sales figure of 143,921 tonnes, industry sources predict that most processors will enter the new season with minimal stock.
Jackson also highlighted that while exports to India have remained stable, maintaining the same volume as last year, the combined demand from China and India now accounts for more than 70 per cent of all Australian almond exports. This concentration of sales in just two key markets reflects the growing importance of Asia-Pacific in global almond trade.
Looking Ahead
With three months remaining in the current season, which concludes in February 2025, the Australian almond industry is set to finish the year on a high note. The continued strength in global pricing, coupled with the favourable exchange rate, provides optimism for Australian growers and exporters.
However, the ongoing success of the Australian almond sector will depend on maintaining strong market access, particularly in China, and continuing to expand the reach of Australian almonds across other international markets.
As the season progresses, Australian almond processors are likely to face pressure to secure new markets and manage inventory levels carefully to sustain their position as a leading exporter of almonds in the global market.