A new Rabobank report details that Australian beef production has remained high and exports hit new records as cattle prices have started to lift.
Production volumes and exports remain strong for Australian beef with seasonal conditions continuing to be favourable in most cattle producing areas.
“Seasonal conditions continue to be favourable in most cattle-producing areas of the country,” said Report lead author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird.
“Dry conditions in southern areas in the first half of the year have limited the numbers of heavy finished grass-fed cattle, but good seasonal conditions in the north continue to support high slaughter numbers.”
According to the report, weekly cattle slaughter numbers remain at around 140,000 head per week, up 20 per cent on the five-year average.
“Given our expectations for the number of cattle in the system, we believe slaughter numbers will continue at these rates into the latter part of the year,” said Gidley-Baird.
The report says Australian beef export volumes in July this year (of 129,998 metric tonnes swt) were the largest volumes ever exported, passing previous peaks in 2019 and 2015.
Gidley-Baird said Australian beef export volumes to the US for July 2024 were the highest since December 2015 and to Japan, the highest since March 2020.
The report said Australian cattle prices rose sharply in July, particularly finished steer and cow prices, which lifted 15 per cent and 32 per cent respectively in the month. ”Prices have since levelled off a little, but remain on an upward trajectory,” said Gidley-Baird.
If US import prices peaked again in quarter four – as was a typical pattern – Rabobank would expect to see Australian cow and finished steer prices creep up further.
“However, the continuing high volumes of cattle in the market and what we believe to be a steady state of high cattle inventory leads us to expect that restocker/young cattle prices will remain firm, but not see as much upside,” said Gidley-Baird.