Confectionery manufacturers are exploring cocoa free chocolate as they respond to increased volatility in the price and supply of cocoa beans, according to new research from Rabobank.
According to the report Beyond the bean: ‘Big chocolate’ explores cocoa free pathways, food companies are investigating a range of technologies that could replace cocoa beans with alternatives that are more reliable in supply and less exposed to price swings. These include lab grown, fermented and upcycled cocoa like ingredients.
The global cocoa market has experienced sharp disruption in recent years, with climate related challenges affecting supply and contributing to high price volatility. As a result, cocoa free innovation in chocolate “is moving from niche experiments to strategic initiatives” as manufacturers seek to diversify their ingredient base, the report said.
“Today cocoa free (chocolate product) volumes are negligible, but partnerships between startups and major food companies show that diversification is shifting from niche experiments to a more deliberate part of the innovation agenda,” RaboResearch says.
However, the report notes that cocoa substitutes are unlikely to appear in standard or premium chocolate bars in the near term. They are expected to be used in compound chocolate applications such as coatings, fillings and inclusions for confectionery, bakery products and desserts as core chocolate formats are difficult to replicate.
Cocoa prices rose in late 2024 before falling by late 2025. Prices remain around double 2023 levels, according to RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules.
Behind the price movements are deeper challenges. Cocoa is grown largely in equatorial regions, with more than 60 per cent of supply coming from West Africa. Production is sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall, with recent seasons marked by erratic weather, drought and disease, including swollen shoot virus. Yields in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana have declined, while recovery timelines remain uncertain.
Sustainability pressures add to the risk as cocoa farming is linked to deforestation and biodiversity loss. Climate modelling also suggests large areas of current cocoa growing regions could become unsuitable by 2050 without adaptation.
RaboResearch said the past 18 months have reshaped procurement strategies for chocolate manufacturers, placing pressure on margins and accelerating reformulation.
Three pathways
RaboResearch identified three technology pathways being pursued by cocoa suppliers and snack manufacturers. These include lab grown cocoa aimed at long term supply security, fermentation based solutions for nearer term reformulation and scalable growth, and upcycled ingredient systems for cost focused, high volume applications.
Lab grown cocoa uses plant cell cultures to produce cocoa powder and cocoa butter in bioreactors, with the aim of replicating cocoa without farming.
“It is the only cocoa free technology that offers a theoretical route to chocolate ‘bar grade’ sensory experience and long term supply security, but it is still in the pilot stage,” said RaboResearch analyst Paul Joules.
“In theory, lab grown cocoa is identical to cocoa, but it is a long horizon play that is still highly experimental. Consumer acceptance is untested and there are hurdles around cost, scale and regulatory approval.”
Fermentation based approaches use plant inputs such as oats, sunflower seeds, carob, fava beans, barley and grape seeds to create chocolate like ingredients. These are the most advanced for near term use, with several companies scaling production.
Despite the activity, cocoa remains central to chocolate production. RaboResearch highlighted that the options are there to add resilience rather than replacing cocoa.