According to a new report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank, global beef trade is expected to grow over the next five years.
Driven by increasing demand from Asia and expanding exports from South American countries, the report and accompanying world beef map highlight that global beef trade has increased substantially over the past five years, with exports rising by 14 per cent from 2019 to nearly 13 million metric tonnes in 2024.
“Brazil and China have emerged as dominant forces, with Brazil leading exports and China becoming the top importer,” RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said.
“Brazilian beef exports have surged from 2.3 million metric tonnes in 2019 to an estimated 3.6 million metric tonnes in 2024, largely fuelled by China’s growing market demand.”
These export volumes are double those of the second-largest exporter in 2024, Australia, the report said. Gidley-Baird said this growth highlights Brazil’s pivotal role, accounting for approximately 50 per cent of China’s beef imports.
The report said the global beef market has experienced volatility over the past five years due to disease outbreaks, geopolitical tensions and shifting economic conditions. This unpredictability is expected to continue, affecting traditional trade flows and creating ongoing uncertainty.
“As tariffs and market access restrictions continue, the geopolitical environment remains a key factor in market fluctuations. Companies that can navigate this volatility and capitalise on favourable conditions will be well-positioned for success,” he said.
Seasonal variations have also driven production changes. Both Australia and, more recently, the US have experienced historically low beef cow inventories and record-high cattle prices.
“The uncertainty and unpredictability have led to increasing volatility in global beef markets, with prices regularly reaching record highs and dropping to historic lows,” he said.
The report said the second half of the decade is set to see continued growth in global beef trade, driven by increasing consumption in Asia. Gidley-Baird said countries such as Vietnam, China, Malaysia and the Philippines are “experiencing strong per capita consumption growth”.
Through productivity improvements and enhanced management practices, South American countries like Brazil are expected to meet this demand.
“Other established exporters – such as the US, Australia and New Zealand – are expected to see more value-driven growth, leveraging quality attributes and established supply chains.”
Global beef production has increased by 5.5 per cent over the last five years, but the report anticipates a temporary decline in the coming years, particularly in the US, Brazil and Europe. He said that this reduction will support cattle and beef prices, shifting margins to producers.
“However, production levels are expected to recover, bolstered by improved genetics and increased carcass weights,” Gidley-Baird said.
“With lower global supplies of beef expected in the next couple of years, and our expectation that growth in beef consumption will be driven by net-importing countries, there is likely to be a growing tension between global and domestic customers.
“Australia, New Zealand and Brazil have experienced this recently, as very strong demand from US consumers has led to increased export volumes and prices, and this has supported beef and cattle prices in those countries.”